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FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
LAG#91 in the world · win 3:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 3:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · loss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG pick
50%64%
LAG · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +14%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
NukeSportsBetExpert pick
50%75%
LAG · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +25%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
57%67%
LAG · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
Dust2LAG pick
67%33%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +34%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
AnubisLAG ban
50%67%
LAG · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
38%50%
LAG · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +12%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%38%
LAG · 0 mapsedge LAG +12%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Nuke
5. PickLAG take Inferno
6. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
LAG 50%SportsBetExpert 50%
The model gave 50% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Anubisprediction missed16:13
LAG 31%SportsBetExpert 69%
The model gave 69% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
LAG 27%SportsBetExpert 73%
The model gave 73% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
LAG 37%SportsBetExpert 63%
The model gave 63% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
LAG 82%SportsBetExpert 18%
The model gave 82% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 71%
Series resultLAG 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map4 of 5