ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FAVBET#105 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Misa#115 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
50%52%
FAVBET · 0 mapsnearly even -2%Misa · 27 maps
MirageFAVBET ban
50%41%
FAVBET · 0 mapsedge FAVBET +9%Misa · 18 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%47%
FAVBET · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Misa · 13 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%50%
FAVBET · 1 mapedge Misa +10%Misa · 12 maps
InfernoFAVBET pick
67%54%
FAVBET · 2 mapsedge FAVBET +13%Misa · 9 maps
DefaultFAVBET ban
30%50%
FAVBET · 6 mapsedge Misa +20%Misa · 4 maps
CacheMisa ban
50%40%
FAVBET · 0 mapsedge FAVBET +10%Misa · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFAVBET remove Mirage
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickFAVBET take Inferno
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Cache
6. BanFAVBET remove Default
DeciderAnubis (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
FAVBET 30%Misa 70%
The model gave 70% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteFAVBET · 51%
Series resultMisa 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1