ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fortress#236 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDragonClaw ban
50%40%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +10%Fortress · 6 maps
AncientDragonClaw ban
50%56%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge Fortress +6%Fortress · 5 maps
MirageFortress ban
67%29%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +38%Fortress · 3 maps
AnubisDragonClaw pick
67%50%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +17%Fortress · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%25%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +25%Fortress · 4 maps
DefaultFortress pick
25%50%
DragonClaw · 4 mapsedge Fortress +25%Fortress · 0 maps
NukeFortress ban
50%38%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +12%Fortress · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDragonClaw remove Ancient
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickDragonClaw take Anubis
4. PickFortress take Default
5. BanFortress remove Nuke
6. BanDragonClaw remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 25%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
DragonClaw 25%Fortress 75%
The model gave 75% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragonClaw · 72%
Series resultFortress 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1