CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
29%69%
Sashi · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +40%Black Phoenix · 9 maps
NukeSashi ban
42%43%
Sashi · 8 mapsnearly even -1%Black Phoenix · 3 maps
InfernoSashi pick
75%63%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +12%Black Phoenix · 4 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%55%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
56%50%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +6%Black Phoenix · 0 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
67%57%
Sashi · 2 mapsedge Sashi +10%Black Phoenix · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%43%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +17%Black Phoenix · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
6. BanSashi remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
Sashi 63%Black Phoenix 37%
The model gave 63% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
Sashi 14%Black Phoenix 86%
The model gave 86% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Sashi 49%Black Phoenix 51%
The model gave 51% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 70%
Series resultSashi 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3