CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction66yuBoJlbl#237 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lavked pick
60%60%
6yuBoJlbl · 1 mapnearly even +0%Lavked · 21 map
MirageLavked ban
60%38%
6yuBoJlbl · 1 mapedge 6yuBoJlbl +22%Lavked · 20 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%38%
6yuBoJlbl · 0 mapsedge 6yuBoJlbl +12%Lavked · 17 maps
Nuke6yuBoJlbl ban
50%50%
6yuBoJlbl · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 16 maps
Anubis6yuBoJlbl ban
50%54%
6yuBoJlbl · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Lavked · 9 maps
InfernoLavked ban
40%36%
6yuBoJlbl · 1 mapnearly even +4%Lavked · 7 maps
Default6yuBoJlbl pick
50%33%
6yuBoJlbl · 0 mapsedge 6yuBoJlbl +17%Lavked · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban6yuBoJlbl remove Anubis
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. Pick6yuBoJlbl take Default
4. PickLavked take Dust2
5. BanLavked remove Mirage
6. Ban6yuBoJlbl remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
6yuBoJlbl 74%Lavked 26%
The model gave 74% on 6yuBoJlbl — the map was taken by 6yuBoJlbl.
Dust2prediction missed19:17
6yuBoJlbl 47%Lavked 53%
The model gave 53% on Lavked — the map was taken by 6yuBoJlbl.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 66%
Series result6yuBoJlbl 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2