Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLegacy pick
67%57%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +10%MIBR · 10 maps
NukeMIBR pick
44%67%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge MIBR +23%MIBR · 8 maps
AncientLegacy ban
44%36%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +8%MIBR · 7 maps
InfernoMIBR ban
67%45%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +22%MIBR · 7 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
55%50%
Legacy · 7 mapsedge Legacy +5%MIBR · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%67%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 2 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%71%
Legacy · 0 mapsedge MIBR +21%MIBR · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. PickLegacy take Mirage
4. PickMIBR take Nuke
5. BanMIBR remove Inferno
6. BanLegacy remove Ancient
DeciderCache (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Legacy 26%MIBR 74%
The model gave 74% on MIBR — the map was taken by Legacy.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Legacy 73%MIBR 27%
The model gave 73% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 61%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2