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FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#152 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rare Atom#98 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
53%64%
The Huns · 13 mapsedge Rare Atom +11%Rare Atom · 7 maps
AncientThe Huns pick
58%60%
The Huns · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Rare Atom · 6 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
60%50%
The Huns · 11 mapsedge The Huns +10%Rare Atom · 0 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
56%67%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +11%Rare Atom · 5 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
33%50%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Rare Atom · 2 maps
MirageRare Atom ban
38%57%
The Huns · 4 mapsedge Rare Atom +19%Rare Atom · 3 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%60%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
3. PickThe Huns take Ancient
4. PickRare Atom take Cache
5. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
6. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (53% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
The Huns 36%Rare Atom 64%
The model gave 64% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
The Huns 36%Rare Atom 64%
The model gave 64% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by The Huns.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
The Huns 31%Rare Atom 69%
The model gave 69% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 69%
Series resultRare Atom 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3