FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5star#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
83%23%
NEXVOID · 8 mapsedge NEXVOID +60%5star · 9 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
69%45%
NEXVOID · 9 mapsedge NEXVOID +24%5star · 7 maps
Nuke5star pick
43%58%
NEXVOID · 3 mapsedge 5star +15%5star · 8 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
33%56%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge 5star +23%5star · 5 maps
Dust25star ban
44%50%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge 5star +6%5star · 0 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%63%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge 5star +13%5star · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%67%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge 5star +7%5star · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. Pick5star take Nuke
5. Ban5star remove Ancient
6. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
NEXVOID 75%5star 25%
The model gave 75% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by 5star.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
NEXVOID 94%5star 6%
The model gave 94% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
NEXVOID 35%5star 65%
The model gave 65% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 65%
Series result5star 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3