FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#98 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
73%40%
Rare Atom · 11 mapsedge Rare Atom +33%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
50%44%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsedge Rare Atom +6%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
50%60%
Rare Atom · 6 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
50%50%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 10 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
64%40%
Rare Atom · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +24%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
63%50%
Rare Atom · 4 mapsedge Rare Atom +13%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%33%
Rare Atom · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickRare Atom take Dust2
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
6. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Rare Atom 37%Chinggis Warriors 63%
The model gave 63% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Rare Atom 82%Chinggis Warriors 18%
The model gave 82% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
Rare Atom 63%Chinggis Warriors 37%
The model gave 63% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 68%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3