Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
58%47%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge Astralis +11%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
27%74%
Astralis · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +47%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 maps
MirageAstralis ban
50%46%
Astralis · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
67%56%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge Astralis +11%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
50%50%
Astralis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%33%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +24%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
25%40%
Astralis · 4 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +15%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderCache (57% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
Astralis 11%Ninjas in Pyjamas 89%
The model gave 89% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Astralis.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Astralis 64%Ninjas in Pyjamas 36%
The model gave 64% on Astralis — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Astralis 73%Ninjas in Pyjamas 27%
The model gave 73% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 70%
Series resultAstralis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3