Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLiquid pick
63%39%
Liquid · 4 mapsedge Liquid +24%Betclic · 14 maps
AnubisBetclic pick
50%73%
Liquid · 4 mapsedge Betclic +23%Betclic · 11 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
22%36%
Liquid · 5 mapsedge Betclic +14%Betclic · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%45%
Liquid · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Betclic · 7 maps
AncientLiquid ban
50%50%
Liquid · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 6 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
57%29%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge Liquid +28%Betclic · 3 maps
OverpassLiquid ban
50%30%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Liquid +20%Betclic · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Overpass
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickLiquid take Nuke
4. PickBetclic take Anubis
5. BanBetclic remove Dust2
6. BanLiquid remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (43% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
Liquid 47%Betclic 53%
The model gave 53% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Liquid 75%Betclic 25%
The model gave 75% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
Liquid 27%Betclic 73%
The model gave 73% on Betclic — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 70%
Series resultLiquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3