Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#40 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SINNERS#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SINNERS pick
50%54%
FOKUS · 8 mapsnearly even -4%SINNERS · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%36%
FOKUS · 6 mapsnearly even +4%SINNERS · 7 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
50%45%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +5%SINNERS · 7 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
71%45%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +26%SINNERS · 7 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
43%55%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge SINNERS +12%SINNERS · 7 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
36%50%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge SINNERS +14%SINNERS · 0 maps
OverpassSINNERS ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
2. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickSINNERS take Dust2
5. BanSINNERS remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (40% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
FOKUS 34%SINNERS 66%
The model gave 66% on SINNERS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
FOKUS 57%SINNERS 43%
The model gave 57% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 54%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2