Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASTRAL#71 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
56%67%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge ASTRAL +11%ASTRAL · 11 maps
NukeNemesis pick
67%54%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +13%ASTRAL · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
64%50%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +14%ASTRAL · 4 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
46%43%
Nemesis · 9 mapsnearly even +3%ASTRAL · 3 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
64%50%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +14%ASTRAL · 4 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%50%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 6 maps
DefaultNemesis ban
38%67%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge ASTRAL +29%ASTRAL · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Default
DeciderDust2 (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Nemesis 47%ASTRAL 53%
The model gave 53% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Nemesis 42%ASTRAL 58%
The model gave 58% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Nemesis 64%ASTRAL 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 62%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3