Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemiga ban
33%59%
Nemiga · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +26%Nemesis · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%67%
Nemiga · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Nemesis · 11 maps
NukeNemiga pick
55%67%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +12%Nemesis · 8 maps
MirageNemesis pick
56%64%
Nemiga · 5 mapsedge Nemesis +8%Nemesis · 7 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%46%
Nemiga · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Nemesis · 9 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
73%50%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +23%Nemesis · 0 maps
CacheNemesis ban
43%33%
Nemiga · 3 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemesis · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickNemiga take Nuke
4. PickNemesis take Mirage
5. BanNemesis remove Cache
6. BanNemiga remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (53% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
Nemiga 45%Nemesis 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Nemiga 24%Nemesis 76%
The model gave 76% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 58%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2