Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHAVU pick
44%36%
ENCE · 12 mapsedge ENCE +8%HAVU · 7 maps
NukeENCE pick
60%67%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge HAVU +7%HAVU · 8 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
40%33%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +7%HAVU · 11 maps
AncientHAVU ban
55%50%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +5%HAVU · 0 maps
InfernoHAVU ban
50%29%
ENCE · 4 mapsedge ENCE +21%HAVU · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%38%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +12%HAVU · 4 maps
AnubisENCE ban
67%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +17%HAVU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Dust2
2. BanHAVU remove Ancient
3. PickENCE take Nuke
4. PickHAVU take Mirage
5. BanHAVU remove Inferno
6. BanENCE remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
ENCE 47%HAVU 53%
The model gave 53% on HAVU — the map was taken by ENCE.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
ENCE 69%HAVU 31%
The model gave 69% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 55%
Series resultENCE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2