PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGentle Mates ban
40%57%
K27 · 1 mapedge Gentle Mates +17%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%57%
K27 · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
MirageK27 pick
50%43%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +7%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
NukeGentle Mates pick
50%43%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +7%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
40%50%
K27 · 1 mapedge Gentle Mates +10%Gentle Mates · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickGentle Mates take Nuke
5. BanGentle Mates remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
K27 54%Gentle Mates 46%
The model gave 54% on K27 — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
K27 53%Gentle Mates 47%
The model gave 53% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
K27 33%Gentle Mates 67%
The model gave 67% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 60%
Series resultGentle Mates 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3