Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient100 Thieves pick
50%57%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 3 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%40%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
67%60%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%60%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%40%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +20%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. Pick100 Thieves take Ancient
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
100 Thieves 37%BASEMENT BOYS 63%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
100 Thieves 63%BASEMENT BOYS 37%
The model gave 63% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 54%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2