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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageThe Last Resort ban
43%33%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +10%The Last Resort · 5 maps
AncientHEROIC Academy pick
43%57%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%The Last Resort · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
33%38%
HEROIC Academy · 2 mapsedge The Last Resort +5%The Last Resort · 4 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
60%57%
HEROIC Academy · 1 mapnearly even +3%The Last Resort · 3 maps
AnubisHEROIC Academy ban
50%71%
HEROIC Academy · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +21%The Last Resort · 3 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
33%50%
HEROIC Academy · 2 mapsedge The Last Resort +17%The Last Resort · 0 maps
DefaultHEROIC Academy ban
50%60%
HEROIC Academy · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%The Last Resort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC Academy remove Anubis
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
3. PickHEROIC Academy take Ancient
4. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC Academy remove Default
DeciderNuke (33% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
HEROIC Academy 42%The Last Resort 58%
The model gave 58% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
HEROIC Academy 56%The Last Resort 44%
The model gave 56% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 51%
Series resultThe Last Resort 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2