NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom pick
67%67%
Lavked · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 2 maps
NukeLavked pick
60%60%
Lavked · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 1 map
Dust2Lavked ban
50%67%
Lavked · 4 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 2 maps
AncientPhantom ban
71%50%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Lavked +21%Phantom · 2 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
57%50%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Lavked +7%Phantom · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
60%50%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Overpass
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickLavked take Nuke
4. PickPhantom take Mirage
5. BanPhantom remove Ancient
6. BanLavked remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Lavked 53%Phantom 47%
The model gave 53% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Lavked 31%Phantom 69%
The model gave 69% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Lavked 71%Phantom 29%
The model gave 71% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 51%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3