ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Voca#92 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
78%56%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge Wildcard +22%Voca · 5 maps
OverpassVoca pick
67%44%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +23%Voca · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
75%60%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +15%Voca · 1 map
MirageWildcard ban
67%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +17%Voca · 2 maps
NukeVoca ban
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Voca · 0 maps
InfernoVoca ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Voca · 0 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%60%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Voca +10%Voca · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanVoca remove Inferno
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickVoca take Overpass
5. BanVoca remove Nuke
6. BanWildcard remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (75% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Wildcard 76%Voca 24%
The model gave 76% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Voca.
Overpassprediction missed12:16
Wildcard 69%Voca 31%
The model gave 69% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 70%
Series resultVoca 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2