ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#61 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bounty Hunters#109 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
67%60%
Imperial · 5 mapsedge Imperial +7%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
MirageImperial pick
67%50%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Imperial +17%Bounty Hunters · 4 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%67%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +17%Bounty Hunters · 5 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
40%75%
Imperial · 1 mapedge Bounty Hunters +35%Bounty Hunters · 4 maps
AnubisImperial ban
57%50%
Imperial · 3 mapsedge Imperial +7%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
67%50%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Imperial +17%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
OverpassBounty Hunters ban
60%40%
Imperial · 1 mapedge Imperial +20%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Overpass
6. BanImperial remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Imperial 64%Bounty Hunters 36%
The model gave 64% on Imperial — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Imperial 60%Bounty Hunters 40%
The model gave 60% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Imperial 57%Bounty Hunters 43%
The model gave 57% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 54%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3