United21 League Season 48 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFURITY#115 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
50%57%
INFURITY · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +7%BIG Academy · 3 maps
Dust2INFURITY pick
50%43%
INFURITY · 0 mapsedge INFURITY +7%BIG Academy · 3 maps
MirageBIG Academy ban
50%50%
INFURITY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%60%
INFURITY · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 1 map
OverpassINFURITY ban
50%60%
INFURITY · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFURITY remove Overpass
2. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
3. PickINFURITY take Dust2
4. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
5. BanBIG Academy remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
INFURITY 40%BIG Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
INFURITY 43%BIG Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Overpassprediction correct7:13
INFURITY 40%BIG Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 64%
Series resultBIG Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3