Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
M80#30 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Defaultpossible decider
75%67%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +8%M80 · 2 maps
Dust2Wildcard pick
70%50%
Wildcard · 6 mapsedge Wildcard +20%M80 · 0 maps
MirageWildcard ban
67%60%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +7%M80 · 1 map
NukeM80 ban
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%M80 · 0 maps
OverpassM80 ban
57%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +7%M80 · 0 maps
InfernoM80 pick
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 0 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%40%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +10%M80 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanM80 remove Nuke
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickM80 take Inferno
5. BanM80 remove Overpass
6. BanWildcard remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (75% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Wildcard 72%M80 28%
The model gave 72% on Wildcard — the map was taken by M80.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Wildcard 47%M80 53%
The model gave 53% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 62%
Series resultM80 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2