Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
STATE#137 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
61%56%
CYBERSHOKE · 14 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +5%STATE · 5 maps
Dust2STATE ban
52%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 19 mapsnearly even +2%STATE · 0 maps
MirageCYBERSHOKE ban
59%71%
CYBERSHOKE · 13 mapsedge STATE +12%STATE · 3 maps
NukeSTATE pick
45%70%
CYBERSHOKE · 7 mapsedge STATE +25%STATE · 6 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%STATE · 1 map
AnubisSTATE ban
38%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 4 mapsnearly even -2%STATE · 1 map
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
50%57%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge STATE +7%STATE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. PickSTATE take Nuke
5. BanSTATE remove Anubis
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
CYBERSHOKE 24%STATE 76%
The model gave 76% on STATE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
CYBERSHOKE 59%STATE 41%
The model gave 59% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 57%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2