Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · win 16:13series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 16:13
ROUNDS#231 in the world · loss 13:16The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ROUNDS ban
33%33%
HAVU · 11 mapsnearly even +0%ROUNDS · 2 maps
NukeROUNDS ban
64%30%
HAVU · 7 mapsedge HAVU +34%ROUNDS · 6 maps
MirageROUNDS ban
36%33%
HAVU · 7 mapsnearly even +3%ROUNDS · 5 maps
InfernoHAVU ban
29%50%
HAVU · 3 mapsedge ROUNDS +21%ROUNDS · 6 maps
AncientHAVU ban
50%56%
HAVU · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +6%ROUNDS · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%71%
HAVU · 2 mapsnearly even -4%ROUNDS · 3 maps
OverpassHAVU ban
38%50%
HAVU · 4 mapsedge ROUNDS +12%ROUNDS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Ancient
2. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
3. BanHAVU remove Inferno
4. BanROUNDS remove Mirage
5. BanHAVU remove Overpass
6. BanROUNDS remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
HAVU 80%ROUNDS 20%
The model gave 80% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 54%
Series resultHAVU 16:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1