NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
63%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 12 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%Vexar · 3 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%43%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +7%Vexar · 10 maps
InfernoVexar pick
44%56%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 5 maps
MirageVexar ban
67%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +23%Vexar · 5 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC ban
36%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 7 mapsedge Vexar +14%Vexar · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 1 mapnearly even +0%Vexar · 6 maps
AnubisVexar ban
38%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 4 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickVexar take Inferno
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:3
ex-RUSTEC 35%Vexar 65%
The model gave 65% on Vexar — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
ex-RUSTEC 39%Vexar 61%
The model gave 61% on Vexar — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 62%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2