Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
65%48%
HOTU · 16 mapsedge HOTU +17%G2 Ares · 17 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
60%47%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +13%G2 Ares · 13 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
56%61%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%G2 Ares · 19 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%55%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%G2 Ares · 18 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%43%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +14%G2 Ares · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
58%50%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +8%G2 Ares · 2 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
75%50%
HOTU · 4 mapsedge HOTU +25%G2 Ares · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
6. BanHOTU remove Overpass
DeciderCache (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
HOTU 42%G2 Ares 58%
The model gave 58% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
HOTU 70%G2 Ares 30%
The model gave 70% on HOTU — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 70%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2