Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
XCLANloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeXCLAN ban
50%38%
XCLAN · 0 mapsedge XCLAN +12%EAC · 12 maps
AncientXCLAN pick
50%40%
XCLAN · 0 mapsedge XCLAN +10%EAC · 11 maps
MirageXCLAN ban
50%46%
XCLAN · 0 mapsnearly even +4%EAC · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
XCLAN · 0 mapsnearly even +0%EAC · 8 maps
CacheEAC pick
40%63%
XCLAN · 1 mapedge EAC +23%EAC · 4 maps
InfernoEAC ban
50%25%
XCLAN · 0 mapsedge XCLAN +25%EAC · 4 maps
AnubisEAC ban
50%57%
XCLAN · 0 mapsedge EAC +7%EAC · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXCLAN remove Mirage
2. BanEAC remove Inferno
3. PickXCLAN take Ancient
4. PickEAC take Cache
5. BanEAC remove Anubis
6. BanXCLAN remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
XCLAN 31%EAC 69%
The model gave 69% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
XCLAN 57%EAC 43%
The model gave 57% on XCLAN — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 78%
Series resultEAC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2