Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 9:13series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 9:13
BC.Game#60 in the world · win 13:9The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BC.Game ban
33%29%
HAVU · 11 mapsnearly even +4%BC.Game · 3 maps
MirageHAVU ban
40%33%
HAVU · 6 mapsedge HAVU +7%BC.Game · 2 maps
NukeBC.Game ban
64%50%
HAVU · 7 mapsedge HAVU +14%BC.Game · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
38%40%
HAVU · 4 mapsnearly even -2%BC.Game · 1 map
InfernoHAVU ban
29%50%
HAVU · 3 mapsedge BC.Game +21%BC.Game · 0 maps
DefaultBC.Game ban
67%50%
HAVU · 2 mapsedge HAVU +17%BC.Game · 0 maps
AnubisHAVU ban
50%40%
HAVU · 0 mapsedge HAVU +10%BC.Game · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Inferno
2. BanBC.Game remove Nuke
3. BanHAVU remove Mirage
4. BanBC.Game remove Default
5. BanHAVU remove Anubis
6. BanBC.Game remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (38% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
HAVU 57%BC.Game 43%
The model gave 57% on HAVU — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Model check result
Model favoriteBC.Game · 54%
Series resultBC.Game 9:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1