BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTNC pick
57%50%
TNC · 3 mapsedge TNC +7%megoshort · 0 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
57%50%
TNC · 3 mapsedge TNC +7%megoshort · 0 maps
Anubismegoshort ban
67%50%
TNC · 2 mapsedge TNC +17%megoshort · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%40%
TNC · 1 mapnearly even +0%megoshort · 1 map
Miragemegoshort pick
40%40%
TNC · 1 mapnearly even +0%megoshort · 1 map
DefaultTNC ban
50%40%
TNC · 0 mapsedge TNC +10%megoshort · 1 map
OverpassTNC ban
40%50%
TNC · 1 mapedge megoshort +10%megoshort · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Overpass
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickTNC take Ancient
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Anubis
6. BanTNC remove Default
DeciderDust2 (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
TNC 47%megoshort 53%
The model gave 53% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
TNC 69%megoshort 31%
The model gave 69% on TNC — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC · 56%
Series resultmegoshort 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2