Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
100 Thieves#32 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient100 Thieves ban
67%40%
Sharks · 2 mapsedge Sharks +27%100 Thieves · 1 map
NukeSharks pick
67%60%
Sharks · 2 mapsedge Sharks +7%100 Thieves · 1 map
Mirage100 Thieves pick
40%60%
Sharks · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +20%100 Thieves · 1 map
Anubis100 Thieves ban
50%60%
Sharks · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 1 map
InfernoSharks ban
50%60%
Sharks · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Inferno
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
3. PickSharks take Nuke
4. Pick100 Thieves take Mirage
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Sharks 37%100 Thieves 63%
The model gave 63% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Sharks.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Sharks 60%100 Thieves 40%
The model gave 60% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 57%
Series resultSharks 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2