Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
40%67%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapedge magic +27%magic · 2 maps
Ancientmagic ban
67%50%
Gentle Mates · 2 mapsedge Gentle Mates +17%magic · 0 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
67%50%
Gentle Mates · 2 mapsedge Gentle Mates +17%magic · 0 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
Gentle Mates · 2 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 0 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%60%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 1 map
OverpassGentle Mates ban
50%60%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. Pickmagic take Mirage
5. Banmagic remove Ancient
6. BanGentle Mates remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct16:19
Gentle Mates 23%magic 77%
The model gave 77% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Infernoprediction missed19:22
Gentle Mates 69%magic 31%
The model gave 69% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 60%
Series resultmagic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2