Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#155 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Last Bullet#210 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Last Bullet pick
60%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Rooster +10%Last Bullet · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
33%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Last Bullet +17%Last Bullet · 2 maps
AncientLast Bullet ban
50%57%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge Last Bullet +7%Last Bullet · 3 maps
DefaultRooster ban
33%60%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Last Bullet +27%Last Bullet · 1 map
InfernoRooster pick
67%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +17%Last Bullet · 0 maps
MirageRooster ban
50%67%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge Last Bullet +17%Last Bullet · 2 maps
OverpassLast Bullet ban
40%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Last Bullet +10%Last Bullet · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Mirage
2. BanLast Bullet remove Overpass
3. PickRooster take Inferno
4. PickLast Bullet take Dust2
5. BanLast Bullet remove Ancient
6. BanRooster remove Default
DeciderNuke (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Rooster 57%Last Bullet 43%
The model gave 57% on Rooster — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Rooster 43%Last Bullet 57%
The model gave 57% on Last Bullet — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 58%
Series resultLast Bullet 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2