ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#89 in the world · win 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
fnatic#37 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 2 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 2 maps
Infernofnatic pick
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 2 maps
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 0 maps
Nukefnatic ban
67%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +17%fnatic · 0 maps
Overpassfnatic ban
50%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 0 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%60%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. Pickfnatic take Inferno
5. Banfnatic remove Overpass
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
SPARTA 53%fnatic 47%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
SPARTA 37%fnatic 63%
The model gave 63% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
SPARTA 50%fnatic 50%
The model gave 50% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 67%
Series resultSPARTA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3