BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AaB#69 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWalczaki ban
57%63%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge AaB +6%AaB · 4 maps
NukeAaB ban
70%40%
Walczaki · 6 mapsedge Walczaki +30%AaB · 1 map
AnubisWalczaki pick
63%50%
Walczaki · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +13%AaB · 2 maps
OverpassAaB pick
40%43%
Walczaki · 1 mapnearly even -3%AaB · 3 maps
DefaultAaB ban
57%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%AaB · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +17%AaB · 0 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsnearly even +0%AaB · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
2. BanAaB remove Nuke
3. PickWalczaki take Anubis
4. PickAaB take Overpass
5. BanAaB remove Default
6. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Walczaki 42%AaB 58%
The model gave 58% on AaB — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
Walczaki 80%AaB 20%
The model gave 80% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteAaB · 52%
Series resultWalczaki 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2