ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#88 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bounty Hunters#109 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
50%60%
Galorys · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
AncientGalorys pick
67%63%
Galorys · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Bounty Hunters · 4 maps
MirageBounty Hunters pick
60%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%Bounty Hunters · 4 maps
NukeGalorys ban
50%71%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +21%Bounty Hunters · 3 maps
OverpassBounty Hunters ban
40%40%
Galorys · 1 mapnearly even +0%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Nuke
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Overpass
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickBounty Hunters take Mirage
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Galorys 31%Bounty Hunters 69%
The model gave 69% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Galorys 52%Bounty Hunters 48%
The model gave 52% on Galorys — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 51%
Series resultBounty Hunters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2