BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
63%50%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsedge ASTRAL +13%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
MirageASTRAL pick
71%60%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +11%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity ban
67%60%
ASTRAL · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
50%67%
ASTRAL · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%ex-Zero Tenacity · 2 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
40%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickASTRAL take Mirage
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
ASTRAL 37%ex-Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
ASTRAL 36%ex-Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
ASTRAL 57%ex-Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 52%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3