Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#47 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 2 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 0 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
67%50%
Eternal Fire · 2 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%magic · 0 maps
Miragemagic pick
40%60%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge magic +20%magic · 1 map
OverpassEternal Fire ban
50%60%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
2. Banmagic remove Ancient
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. Pickmagic take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Eternal Fire 28%magic 72%
The model gave 72% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Eternal Fire 69%magic 31%
The model gave 69% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 59%
Series resultmagic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2