Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rooster#155 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeRooster pick
57%40%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Rooster · 1 map
DefaultRooster ban
40%33%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +7%Rooster · 2 maps
Dust2Alter Ego pick
67%60%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +7%Rooster · 1 map
InfernoAlter Ego ban
50%67%
Alter Ego · 0 mapsedge Rooster +17%Rooster · 2 maps
MirageRooster ban
50%50%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Rooster · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
2. BanRooster remove Mirage
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickRooster take Nuke
5. BanRooster remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Alter Ego 69%Rooster 31%
The model gave 69% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Overpassprediction missed13:9
Alter Ego 47%Rooster 53%
The model gave 53% on Rooster — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 54%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2