NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRBLS ban
50%38%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge RBLS +12%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
43%40%
RBLS · 3 mapsnearly even +3%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
AnubisRBLS pick
50%29%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge RBLS +21%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
33%40%
RBLS · 2 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
Dust2RBLS ban
50%33%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge RBLS +17%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
67%50%
RBLS · 2 mapsedge RBLS +17%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
DefaultHYPERSPIRIT pick
50%60%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRBLS remove Mirage
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
3. PickRBLS take Anubis
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Default
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
6. BanRBLS remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:16
RBLS 47%HYPERSPIRIT 53%
The model gave 53% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
RBLS 56%HYPERSPIRIT 44%
The model gave 56% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
RBLS 67%HYPERSPIRIT 33%
The model gave 67% on RBLS — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 53%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3