BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageThe Last Resort ban
50%43%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +7%The Last Resort · 3 maps
NukeAM ban
50%43%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +7%The Last Resort · 3 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
50%57%
AM · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%The Last Resort · 3 maps
AncientThe Last Resort ban
50%50%
AM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 2 maps
AnubisAM ban
50%67%
AM · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +17%The Last Resort · 2 maps
DefaultAM pick
60%60%
AM · 1 mapnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +10%The Last Resort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Ancient
3. PickAM take Default
4. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
6. BanAM remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
AM 54%The Last Resort 46%
The model gave 54% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
AM 60%The Last Resort 40%
The model gave 60% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 65%
Series resultAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2