NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HAVU ban
71%50%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge Ursa +21%HAVU · 0 maps
InfernoHAVU pick
43%50%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge HAVU +7%HAVU · 0 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
43%50%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge HAVU +7%HAVU · 0 maps
MirageUrsa pick
50%50%
Ursa · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HAVU · 0 maps
NukeHAVU ban
50%50%
Ursa · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HAVU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUrsa remove Overpass
2. BanHAVU remove Dust2
3. PickUrsa take Mirage
4. PickHAVU take Inferno
5. BanHAVU remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Ursa 47%HAVU 53%
The model gave 53% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
Ursa 74%HAVU 26%
The model gave 74% on Ursa — the map was taken by Ursa.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Ursa 50%HAVU 50%
The model gave 50% on Ursa — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 58%
Series resultUrsa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3