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ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ground Zero#139 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
71%40%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 3 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +31%Ground Zero · 1 map
NukeGround Zero pick
60%57%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapnearly even +3%Ground Zero · 3 maps
InfernoTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
60%67%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 2 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%57%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 3 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
60%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
OverpassGround Zero ban
40%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
6. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 47%Ground Zero 53%
The model gave 53% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 81%Ground Zero 19%
The model gave 81% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 68%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2