ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#92 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zomblers#192 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassZomblers ban
44%33%
Voca · 5 mapsedge Voca +11%Zomblers · 2 maps
Dust2Zomblers ban
50%33%
Voca · 4 mapsedge Voca +17%Zomblers · 2 maps
MirageVoca ban
40%75%
Voca · 1 mapedge Zomblers +35%Zomblers · 4 maps
AncientZomblers pick
60%71%
Voca · 1 mapedge Zomblers +11%Zomblers · 3 maps
DefaultVoca pick
60%60%
Voca · 1 mapnearly even +0%Zomblers · 1 map
InfernoVoca ban
50%60%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanZomblers remove Overpass
3. PickVoca take Default
4. PickZomblers take Ancient
5. BanZomblers remove Dust2
6. BanVoca remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Voca 64%Zomblers 36%
The model gave 64% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
Voca 20%Zomblers 80%
The model gave 80% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 84%
Series resultVoca 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2