ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
60%38%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +22%TYLOO · 4 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
67%67%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +0%TYLOO · 2 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%75%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +25%TYLOO · 4 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
71%50%
NEXVOID · 3 mapsedge NEXVOID +21%TYLOO · 0 maps
NukeTYLOO ban
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%TYLOO · 2 maps
OverpassTYLOO pick
50%60%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +10%TYLOO · 1 map
DefaultNEXVOID ban
50%60%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +10%TYLOO · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickTYLOO take Overpass
5. BanTYLOO remove Nuke
6. BanNEXVOID remove Default
DeciderAncient (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
NEXVOID 74%TYLOO 26%
The model gave 74% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
NEXVOID 47%TYLOO 53%
The model gave 53% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Overpassprediction correct8:13
NEXVOID 40%TYLOO 60%
The model gave 60% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 83%
Series resultTYLOO 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3