NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 1:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBebop ban
60%40%
Oxuji · 1 mapedge Oxuji +20%Bebop · 1 map
DefaultBebop ban
50%50%
Oxuji · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Bebop · 2 maps
Dust2Oxuji ban
50%67%
Oxuji · 0 mapsedge Bebop +17%Bebop · 2 maps
MirageBebop pick
50%67%
Oxuji · 0 mapsedge Bebop +17%Bebop · 2 maps
NukeOxuji pick
60%40%
Oxuji · 1 mapedge Oxuji +20%Bebop · 1 map
InfernoOxuji ban
50%40%
Oxuji · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +10%Bebop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOxuji remove Inferno
2. BanBebop remove Ancient
3. PickOxuji take Nuke
4. PickBebop take Mirage
5. BanBebop remove Default
6. BanOxuji remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Oxuji 50%Bebop 50%
The model gave 50% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteBebop · 62%
Series resultOxuji 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1