Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#56 in the world · win 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilmix#191 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix ban
67%45%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge INFINITE +22%Lilmix · 7 maps
AncientINFINITE ban
50%63%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +13%Lilmix · 4 maps
Dust2INFINITE pick
50%25%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +25%Lilmix · 4 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
50%67%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +17%Lilmix · 2 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
50%67%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +17%Lilmix · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%40%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +10%Lilmix · 1 map
NukeLilmix ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Lilmix · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
2. BanLilmix remove Nuke
3. PickINFINITE take Dust2
4. PickLilmix take Inferno
5. BanLilmix remove Mirage
6. BanINFINITE remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
INFINITE 31%Lilmix 69%
The model gave 69% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
INFINITE 77%Lilmix 23%
The model gave 77% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
INFINITE 71%Lilmix 29%
The model gave 71% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 77%
Series resultINFINITE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3