Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BET-M#83 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
60%33%
Sharks · 1 mapedge Sharks +27%BET-M · 2 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
50%50%
Sharks · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BET-M · 2 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%60%
Sharks · 0 mapsedge BET-M +10%BET-M · 1 map
NukeSharks pick
60%50%
Sharks · 1 mapedge Sharks +10%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Dust2
2. BanBET-M remove Ancient
3. PickSharks take Nuke
4. PickBET-M take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Sharks 47%BET-M 53%
The model gave 53% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Sharks 77%BET-M 23%
The model gave 77% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Sharks 60%BET-M 40%
The model gave 60% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 59%
Series resultSharks 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3