Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FOKUS#40 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoGentle Mates pick
67%60%
Gentle Mates · 2 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%FOKUS · 1 map
MirageFOKUS pick
40%60%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapedge FOKUS +20%FOKUS · 1 map
AncientFOKUS ban
60%50%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapedge Gentle Mates +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%40%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +10%FOKUS · 1 map
NukeFOKUS ban
40%50%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapedge FOKUS +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanFOKUS remove Ancient
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. PickFOKUS take Mirage
5. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Gentle Mates 57%FOKUS 43%
The model gave 57% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Gentle Mates 43%FOKUS 57%
The model gave 57% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 51%
Series resultGentle Mates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2