ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#92 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard ban
57%75%
Voca · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +18%Wildcard · 4 maps
OverpassVoca pick
50%60%
Voca · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +10%Wildcard · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%71%
Voca · 1 mapedge Wildcard +11%Wildcard · 3 maps
MirageWildcard pick
40%67%
Voca · 1 mapedge Wildcard +27%Wildcard · 2 maps
NukeVoca ban
50%71%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Wildcard · 3 maps
InfernoVoca ban
50%50%
Voca · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Wildcard · 2 maps
AncientWildcard ban
60%50%
Voca · 1 mapedge Voca +10%Wildcard · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickVoca take Overpass
4. PickWildcard take Mirage
5. BanWildcard remove Dust2
6. BanVoca remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Voca 28%Wildcard 72%
The model gave 72% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Overpassprediction correct6:13
Voca 43%Wildcard 57%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 65%
Series resultWildcard 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2